On July 14, 2025, during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that unless a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached within the next 50 days, the U.S. will impose new sanctions on Russia. These would take the form of 100% secondary tariffs on all countries that continue purchasing Russian energy, thereby indirectly supporting the war effort.

If enacted, these would mark Trump’s first sanctions against Russia during his second term in office. The use of effectively prohibitive tariffs appears deliberate. According to U.S. officials, the primary targets – China, India, and Brazil – are seen as countries that can and should apply pressure on the Kremlin to bring the conflict to an end.

Trump’s stance toward Russia, and Vladimir Putin in particular, has undergone a notable shift since he returned to the White House on January 20. What began as talk of Putin being a “good guy” with whom Trump had a “great relationship,” though one who had “gone off track,” has since evolved into open criticism and explicit threats of new sanctions.

Trump’s Sanctions Against Russia

The reasons behind the White House’s sudden change of stance remain unclear, but several factors likely contributed to it.

First, Trump has been in talks with Putin for months, with zero progress to show for it. Frustration has clearly set in, and by now, it’s probably becoming uncomfortable to keep coming up with yet another excuse, time and again, as to why he hasn’t imposed sanctions on Putin yet, and why everyone needs to keep waiting. Second, it’s getting equally difficult to explain this position in closed-door meetings with NATO allies, where the questions are far blunter and more uncompromising than what Trump faces in front of TV cameras.

But most importantly, Congress is ready to act. A bipartisan bill, jointly drafted by Republicans and Democrats, proposes imposing 500% tariffs on any country continuing to trade with Russia. According to Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the bill’s authors, the legislation is backed by 85 senators, well beyond the supermajority needed to override a presidential veto. Graham has described the bill as a “sledgehammer” intended to deliver a crippling blow to Russia’s economy and to “all those countries who prop up the Putin war machine”.

Secondary Sanctions Against Russia in the Form of 100% Tariffs

In reality, Trump has little choice but to align himself with the bipartisan initiative and announce sanctions of his own. If new sanctions against Russia are imposed through legislation, the situation will take on an entirely different character, and certainly not in Trump’s favor.

For one, congressionally mandated sanctions are tough to reverse. Even after they’ve outlived their purpose, such measures often remain in force for years or even decades. Second, sanctions passed over the president’s head wouldn’t only undermine his popularity but also strongly signal that the current U.S. leader is either unwilling or unable to defend the interests of the Western world at a critical moment.

As is often the case in politics, if you can’t stop a movement, it’s better to lead it, and that’s precisely what Trump is now trying to do. That said, he made one last attempt to strike a deal with Putin, calling him on July 3 after making a public show of lifting sanctions on Syria and two Russian banks. This attempt, like the ones before it, failed.

With the growing risk that the Senate would lose patience and push the sanctions bill through without him, Trump acted. On Thursday, July 10, he called NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and invited him to Washington to establish a new, unified position on Russia. Rutte accepted. After holding closed-door talks, Trump and Rutte appeared together at a joint press conference. Where Trump’s first sanctions against Russia were formally announced.

During the press conference, Trump stated that he was “very dissatisfied with Russia” and warned that if a peace agreement isn’t reached within 50 days, he will impose 100% secondary tariffs on all countries doing business with Russia. These tariffs are primarily aimed at China, India, and Brazil, which have been purchasing discounted Russian oil and gas, thereby helping to sustain the Russian economy and prolong the war in Ukraine.

If enacted, these would be the first time we see Trump’s sanctions against Russia during his entire second term in office.

Weapons Supplies to Ukraine

Additionally, the meeting resulted in an agreement on new arms supplies to Ukraine, marking another significant shift for the U.S. President. Under the agreed framework, NATO will purchase American weapons and then redirect them to Ukraine. However, questions remain about the exact types and quantities of weapons to be supplied, as well as the speed of delivery.

In this way, on one hand, arms shipments to Ukraine will finally resume; on the other, the U.S. will no longer provide them without appropriate payment. Unlike the previous administration, the Trump team is firmly committed to selling arms rather than supplying them as aid.

Conclusion

Although Trump’s sanctions against Russia have been officially announced, many aspects of the situation remain unclear. First, the sanctions are conditional and can be postponed. Within the next fifty days, events may occur that allow President Trump to delay their implementation again or even reconsider them entirely. As we have seen from his previous statements on other tariffs, he can quickly adjust both the timing and scale of sanctions without any apparent justification.

Second, fifty days is a significant period, long enough for Russia to attempt a successful summer offensive. At the same time, details about new arms deliveries to Ukraine remain uncertain, including the timing, composition, and speed. On the other hand, it appears that a critical mass has formed in the Senate, and if Trump continues to delay, sanctions may be passed without him, backed by bipartisan support in Congress.

Therefore, even if Trump’s initial sanctions against Russia remain only a statement, new sanctions will likely be enacted regardless, unless the military conflict is halted and peace negotiations begin.