Donald Trump as a Showman and President 

Will Trump lift sanctions on Russia? This question concerns many people in Russia and far beyond its borders. Let’s try to unpack it and understand the current state of affairs.

Donald Trump loves to shock and captivate the public. He is a showman, and that is his natural element. He has repeatedly stated that, if elected president, he would negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his inauguration. During a presidential debate, he went even further, claiming he would stop the war before even taking office.

Although no one seems to have taken these remarks literally, two critical questions remain on the agenda: how can the war in Ukraine be stopped, and will Trump lift sanctions on Russia?

The Powers of the U.S. President Regarding Sanctions

When discussing sanctions on Russia and the authority of the U.S. President, two critical points must be considered.

The first is that, in response to the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia were imposed not only by the United States but also by the G7 countries, the European Union, and several other Western nations outside these groups. Therefore, any decision by the U.S. President regarding sanctions on Russia would require consultation and coordination with European and other Western allies.

The second key point is that Congress plays a significant role in sanctioning policy alongside the President of the United States. Thus, the President must coordinate and align his actions with Congress. These two factors alone make it clear that the idea of a unilateral scenario, such as “Trump coming to power and lifting all sanctions on his own,” is practically impossible—even if he wanted to.

From the perspective of U.S. law, the President’s authority regarding sanctions is as follows. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the National Emergencies Act (NEA) grant the President broad powers to impose economic sanctions on other states, organizations, and individuals. The President can also delegate these powers to other executive branch agencies under his authority. For instance, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury is empowered to oversee and implement U.S. sanctions policy on behalf of the President.

On the other hand, not all economic sanctions are issued through the executive branch. Many sanctions are enacted at the legislative level. There are numerous relevant laws, such as the Global Magnitsky Act, the Ukraine Freedom Support Act (UFSA), the Sovereignty, Integrity, Democracy, and Economic Stability of Ukraine Act (SIDES), the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), among others.

Therefore, whether Trump might lift sanctions on Russia will not depend solely on his powers as President, i.e., as head of the executive branch. It will also require consultations with the U.S. Congress and coordination with America’s allies within the Western coalition.

What Trump’s Recent Appointments Indicate 

While the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to make specific statements regarding Russian sanctions, his recent appointments to key positions in his administration provide significant insights.

On Wednesday, November 13, Trump announced the appointment of Florida Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and two days earlier, he named Florida Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor.

Both Rubio and Waltz are conservatives. Rubio has frequently spoken about the need to strengthen NATO considering threats from China and Russia, as well as to exert additional pressure on these countries to curb their aggressive foreign policy activities. Waltz has gone even further.

A Colonel (Ret.) in the National Guard, a combat-decorated Green Beret, Mike Waltz recently outlined his vision for ending the war in Ukraine during an interview with the National Public Radio . In Waltz’s view, Russia is a “gas station with nukes,” and the first blow should target its energy sector.

To achieve this, Waltz advocates for “actual energy sanctions” on Russian oil and gas, considering the current measures ineffective. This may involve an energy embargo similar to what was previously imposed on Iran. At the same time, he proposes a rapid increase in U.S. oil and gas production. This way, in his view, the Russian economy and the “war machine will dry up very quickly.”

Additionally, Waltz believes that Ukraine’s hands should be untied by lifting restrictions on the range of strikes that can be carried out using American weapons. He asserts that such measures would significantly shift the situation on the ground.

As we can see, the stance of these two key figures, who will shape international policy in Trump’s administration, is quite tough on Russia. Based on their statements, it appears more likely that existing sanctions will be tightened rather than eased.

Will Trump Lift Sanctions on Russia?

While Donald Trump has consistently expressed his intention to end the war in Ukraine and negotiate with Russia, these negotiations are expected to be conducted from a position of strength. The U.S. administration will likely demand significant strategic concessions from Russia as a precondition for making peace with Ukraine possible. In return, there might be some easing of sanctions, but a complete removal seems highly unlikely.

The issue of lifting sanctions on Russia is deeply intertwined with the broader framework for rebuilding Ukraine’s devastated economy. Frozen Russian assets are a key point of leverage in negotiations and a potential source of funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Decisions on sanctions will likely be tied to a coordinated plan and budget for this rebuilding effort, developed in collaboration with Congress and Western allies.

Such a decision would also require ending hostilities in Ukraine and signing a peace agreement, which would demand substantial concessions from both sides of the conflict. However, neither party has yet shown readiness for such compromises.

Furthermore, lifting sanctions would necessitate close coordination between the U.S. President, Congress, and Western allies. This would involve extensive diplomatic alignment and consensus across multiple levels, ensuring that any sanctions’ easing aligns with the region’s broader geopolitical and economic strategy.

Given these complexities, whether Trump would lift sanctions on Russia depends on realizing a comprehensive and coordinated framework that includes peace in Ukraine, strategic international agreement, and a sustainable plan for Ukraine’s recovery.

Conclusion

Will Trump lift sanctions on Russia? – This question remains purely theoretical for now. It will only take shape in practical terms after Donald Trump assumes the U.S. presidency on January 20, 2024. At that point, his actions will provide greater clarity. However, it looks highly likely that the process of lifting sanctions on Russia, if it occurs, will be multi-step, complex, and lengthy.

Removing all sanctions against Russia would signify its reintegration into the global economic community. Given the current Russian leadership’s orientation toward strengthening ties with China, Iran, and North Korea while pivoting away from the West, such reintegration is unlikely soon. If it happens, the process could take years, if not decades.

For businesses or individuals impacted by U.S. sanctions, counting on a swift removal of these measures is unrealistic. It is better to address sanction-related issues now without delay. Contact us, and we will quickly assess your situation and suggest a solution.